Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

Dave, you mentioned that there was a very considerable spread between the OMB and the CBO forecasts of defense expenditures in the second and third quarters. The big variable in defense expenditures clearly has to be the speed with which the armaments that were used in Iraq are restored. By this time the Defense Department would have had to place most of the orders if the expenditures are going to be costed in the second and third quarters. This is a factual question, but I would assume that, given a difference between the CBO and the OMB forecasts, OMB is more likely to be right because they are part of the Administration. You mentioned that the OMB numbers were more aggressive than your own forecast, I think.

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