Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

We think that the payroll survey is probably giving the more accurate description of what is really going on in the labor market. One of the things that people have looked at in the household survey is whether the estimates of population on which that survey is fundamentally based are correct. If they have overestimated population, as they did earlier in the decade, then that will inflate household payroll gains relative to payroll gains. We think there is some preliminary evidence that that might be the case for the early years of 2001 and 2002. We’ve seen divergences between these two surveys in the past, and they tend to correct over time. The BLS tends to put greater weight on its measure of the payroll survey, and we have historically also. So we believe that is an accurate description of the state of the labor market today.

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