Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

Absolutely. That said, one of the issues we’ve been focusing on in our forecast of trade is the fact that trade does seem to be much more sensitive to industrial production than it does to GDP. That’s in part because much of trade is composed of manufactured goods, which are more related to industrial production than to GDP as a whole. So we think there are definitely a lot of fundamentals underlying this correlation. But I believe you are quite right that the decline in the dollar has probably exaggerated the relationship presented in that chart.

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