Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

Let me ask something further. A problem in this survey is the very peculiar movement of unfilled orders for communications equipment. You may recall—I’m not sure what month it was but probably October—that there was an extraordinary rise in unfilled orders, and it looked idiosyncratic. I gather that when we checked with the Bureau of the Census they indicated that there were some flaky numbers for unfilled orders. Some communications equipment manufacturers didn’t think those numbers were real, and they now apparently are being written off. If you remember, new orders are calculated as shipments plus the increase in unfilled orders, so we are getting a very sharp decline in communications equipment, and that is holding down the figures for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. But if you take out the communications equipment peculiarity, the report is a lot better than it appears on the surface, as Larry just indicated. I would say it is a wash.

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