Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. We have distributed to you an extra sheet that has the latest information from this morning’s release on the orders and shipments data. The lines that we typically like to look at are the orders excluding aircraft, shown part way down the table, and the “all other” category which encompasses roughly two-thirds of the total. The orders numbers, particularly for the “all other” category, look pretty good to us and would imply perhaps a small upward revision to the fourth quarter. The shipments numbers, shown a little further down on the page, also indicate some positives in the two categories—ex aircraft and “all other”—but it turns out that there were some downward revisions to the preceding months. So on net, we actually would wind up cutting our Q4 number by just a small amount. On balance, we think the changes in the two series would be about offsetting, and in our opinion the outlook for business spending remains quite strong.

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