Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

I have one quick question on energy issues. On virtually all the previous occasions when oil prices went up, it was difficult to distinguish between rising prices of gasoline and home heating oil and rising crude import prices. So the estimate of the tax effect from imported crude and the impact of gasoline prices on PCE gave roughly the same answers, as I recall. We have an unusual test period in the second and third quarters of this year—in fact, probably all of this year—in which, because of the huge differential spreads in refinery marketing, we’re getting different results. Does that enable us to econometrically differentiate where the real impact is? In other words, does it show up in the equations in shortfalls of consumption expenditures as a consequence of the rise in gasoline prices or a later rise in crude oil prices? Or is it too soon to make that judgment?

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