Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

Thank you very much. Dave, I found your discussion of the averaging to be interesting—that is, the forecast is between the devil and the deep blue sea or, in effect, between recession or much slower growth on the one side and more inflation with perhaps higher growth on the other side. It reflects what I have been going through mentally and the discussion we had at some length with our staff in Boston yesterday.

Just focusing on the potential-for-recession side, when is it that we have had drops in residential investment such as the ones that you are projecting (which are quite unusual looking across the whole range of forecasts, particularly for this year) in the absence of a recession? I think the material from the briefings suggested that the drop is about the same as ’90-’91, which was a recession, and not quite as bad as ’80-’82, which was a big recession. When have we seen that outside a recession?

Keyboard shortcuts

j previous speech k next speech