Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

The numbers in Dino’s chart are breakevens, so there were no carry adjustments. Therefore they’re not the same as the calculations in the Bluebook, which include a lot of adjustments and are implied inflation numbers. These are purely the differences between the nominals and the reals. One reason that we always include the five-year five-year-forward breakeven rate is that it is the forward that is easiest to calculate—but where energy prices and carry have the smallest effect. So if you want to get the clearest reading from pure market data, it would be the five-year five-year-forward rate.

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