Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

My second question is about the Bluebook chart 5, which shows a range of alternative estimates of the equilibrium real federal funds rate over time. I want to come back to the Chairman’s discussion about the saving glut and what it might mean for the way we think about monetary policy today. The bottom panel of that chart shows a substantial upward revision in most estimates of equilibrium over the period from ’02 to ’04 and shows us coming back to something close to our long-term averages. Is there an intuitive explanation for how you reconcile that chart with the preponderance of evidence out there, which the Chairman drew to the world’s attention, that suggests you have a big increase in ex ante saving relative to perceived investment opportunities? Wouldn’t that have produced, in at least some mix of these estimates, a sustained and substantial secular decline in estimates of current prevailing equilibrium?

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