Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

Yes. In that comment I was referring specifically to our estimated policy rules, which are empirical renditions of the Committee’s past behavior. If you have the Bluebook handy, in chart 7, right at the bottom under “Memo,” two policy rules are referenced— the estimated outcome-based rule and the estimated forecast-based rule. Both of them show the federal funds rate in the vicinity of 5¼ percent. If you look at the top part of that panel, being careful to look at the corrected version that we sent around late last week, a number of those rules suggest somewhat higher federal funds rate paths. Of course, it depends on the inflation objective. An important distinction between the upper and lower parts of that panel is that the lower part doesn’t have any direct evidence on what the Committee’s inflation objective is. So your question partly gets to what people would be expecting if they had a specific inflation objective in mind that is different from what is incorporated in the upper part of the panel.

Keyboard shortcuts

j previous speech k next speech