Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

The net export numbers are based on trade data only for October- November, and we each make an estimate of what December is going to be. Perhaps half of our miss, or not quite half, was due to differences of opinion about December. Looking at what they’ve done for December, we will take some information from that. Some of what they’ve put in December is information that we didn’t otherwise have. To some degree, it’s statistical and not really about trade. It’s something called a territorial adjustment. Maybe a quarter is differences about things in December for which we are not prepared to change our minds at this point. So we would not go to as strong a positive contribution from net exports as they go because we retain some difference of views about what the December numbers will turn out to be. The other bit of news we received was very strong exports of services. We’ll take that, and we’ll probably give most of the adjustment, but not quite all of it, in the number we write down next for Q4. We will actually want to reverse that thing called territorial adjustment in Q1. So we’re actually going to make imports stronger and the net export contribution slightly more negative in Q1 as a result.

Keyboard shortcuts

j previous speech k next speech