Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

The intervals are, no doubt, wide. In the materials we sent to you in October, when you were talking about your inflation goal, a staff memorandum looked at the gap between the CPI and the PCE price index. From 1994 to 2004, the minimum is minus 0.2, and the maximum is 1.2. They do move around. We found in the regressions that we reported in the Bluebook box that they’re not very precise at all. The standard errors were quite large. So I think the answer is that we don’t have a measure of inflation expectations that we could put much confidence in.

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