Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

I’m interested in the risks you see around the GDP growth rate in your forecast. I note a couple of things. First, some of the growth rate depends upon consumers getting the message that they really ought to be saving for the future instead of spending as they have been. I wonder why they’d do that this year if they didn’t do it last year. Second, I notice that, if you compare the Greenbook GDP forecast with the central tendency of the members of the Committee, growth is a good deal slower—0.3 or 0.4 slower, which in this realm is a lot. I’m interested in how you see the upside risk to this, particularly given that, even with your slower growth rate, you get to zero output gap relatively quickly.

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