People often talk about China’s reserve accumulation affecting U.S. interest rates, but they are only two countries in a big world and you may think that the United States, Europe, and Japan have relatively open financial markets with a lot of mobility. If you look at all the industrial countries together and the flows to all of them together, however, maybe there’s less mobility between the industrial countries as a group and the emerging markets as a group. That might be more believable. That—along with the fact that these flows are big, even when you distribute them over all the industrial countries—is what makes me think that there may be an effect. That may raise a doubt in your mind. It’s not just to the United States or just to Europe; it is in the aggregate.
To answer President Stern, it looks to me—and I’ll double check with our experts—as though, according to our forecast, our model would have predicted negative real net exports last year. So all the growth is a surprise.