Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

As you know, this topic is undergoing a lot of further research. The academic literature that I’ve surveyed has yet to uncover a strong causal relationship between a climb in speculative open interest and the effect on price. One reason that is hard to imagine happening to a powerful degree in the end is that the speculators really don’t want to take actual delivery of the physical commodity, and so the price really should clear in the spot market on what’s happening to underlying supply and demand. But this topic certainly remains under investigation by a number of researchers. I don’t think we have the definitive answer to the question at this point.

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