Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

I just want to underscore this point. It’s not at all clear to me that providing the median of the 70 percent confidence bands is going to be useful to the markets. I think that we have to think about what will be useful to the markets. It is important to convey some sense of the uncertainty—and I very much look forward to the memo that Rick asked for. But academics never think in terms of 70 percent confidence intervals; they think about 90 or 95 percent confidence intervals. I’m not sure who besides readers of the Bluebook and the Greenbook think in 70 percent confidence intervals. So thinking about alternative ways to convey something useful to the markets about our sense of uncertainty, without giving a false sense of precision of 3.0 in 2008 and 3.4 in 2009, may be a better and more sensible way to go. I think we look odd putting something like this out, and I’m not sure it would actually be helpful.

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