Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

There’s one minor qualification to what David just said. We do keep track of rough estimates of what we think that the rise in energy prices over the past few years is possibly doing to trend productivity, and we’ve come up with estimates that maybe it’s 0.1. We think that effect has been ongoing, and it is built into the data. In some sense it’s occurring, and so in some sense it’s in our trend estimates. It is not as though our trends aren’t implicitly taking in the fact that there’s an ongoing loss in productivity associated with rising energy prices.

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