Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

No. One of the facts that we learn from microeconomic data about, for example, job flows is that there is always a huge, astonishing amount of churn—job destruction and job creation—just astonishing; and that’s true even in normal macroeconomic times. So the background radiation level is not zero. But we haven’t incorporated in our baseline any allowance for greater cost, and that’s what this alternative scenario was intended to illustrate, making a pretty generous allowance for the potential effect of that sectoral reallocation on the productive capacity of the economy. But it’s a serious question.

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