Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

One quick follow-on comment. In exhibit 3, in the middle left panel, if you look at our financial turmoil effects, with the gray shading, the bulk of the markdown in 2008 actually is what we’re labeling the financial turmoil. But those are data we pretty much already have in hand. We are calling much of the shortfall in consumption that we expect to see in the third quarter as “financial turmoil.” So much of the weakness in the second half of this year isn’t just taking a flyer on what we think turmoil is going to do; some of it is already in the data.

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