I will be referring to the separate package labeled “Material for Briefing on FOMC Participants’ Economic Projections.” Exhibit 1 shows the central tendencies and ranges of your current forecasts for 2008; corresponding information about the Committee’s most recent projections, those from June, is shown in italics, and Greenbook projections are included as a memo item. Your June projections regarding GDP growth and inflation for the first half of 2008 turned out to be quite close to subsequent BEA data releases; therefore, the revisions in your projections for the year as a whole are almost entirely due to the changes in your implicit projections for the second half of 2008.
As shown in the right column of the top panel, your GDP growth forecasts for 2008:H2 now range from minus 2½ percent to minus ¾ percent; compared with June, each of you has marked down your projection for second-half growth by at least 2 percentage points. As shown in the second panel, your forecasts of the fourth- quarter average unemployment rate fall in a range of 6.3 to 6.6 percent, more than ½ percentage point higher than in June. In accounting for the sharp deterioration in the near-term outlook for activity, your narratives point to the intensification of the financial crisis and its impact on credit conditions and stock market wealth as well as the weakness of incoming data on consumer spending and labor market conditions.
Your assessments of inflation in 2008 have also shifted significantly since June. The central tendency of your forecasts for overall PCE inflation during 2008:H2 (the right column of the third panel) is now about 1½ to 2¼ percent, a drop of about 2 percentage points from June. In this regard, a number of you noted the implications of recent sharp declines in energy and commodity prices that were apparently triggered by the worldwide slowdown in economic activity. In contrast, your projections for core PCE inflation in 2008:H2 (the right column of the bottom panel) are a notch higher than in June.
Exhibit 2 reports your projections for the next three calendar years. Most of you anticipate little or no GDP growth during 2009; as with your implicit forecasts for the second half of 2008, these projections are about 2 percentage points lower than in June. A few of you are projecting even weaker outcomes, with output declining about 1 percent, whereas a few others are projecting stronger economic growth of about 1½ to 1¾ percent. The width of both the ranges and the central tendencies of your projections for real GDP growth for 2009 and 2010 has increased noticeably. Still, all of you anticipate that economic expansion will resume by 2010, and most of you expect a further pickup in growth during 2011. In the narratives accompanying these projections, a number of you said that you expect the pace of recovery to be damped by persistent credit market strains, ongoing adjustment in the housing market, and economic weakness abroad. Apparently, only a few of you assumed that additional fiscal stimulus would be enacted.
Most of you project that the unemployment rate will peak at around 7 to 7½ percent in 2009 and decline gradually over the subsequent two years. However, you generally expect that, even by the end of 2011, the unemployment rate will still be at or above 5½ percent. Moreover, most of you anticipate that the unemployment rate in 2011 will remain well above your own projections of the longer-run unemployment rate that were provided in your trial-run submissions.
The central tendency of your projections for overall PCE inflation is about 1¼ to 2 percent for 2009 and about 1½ to 1¾ percent for 2010 and 2011—roughly the same as for your forecasts of core PCE inflation. About half of you projected inflation rates in 2011 close or identical to your own individual assessments of the rate of inflation consistent with Federal Reserve’s dual mandate for promoting price stability and maximum employment, where we have again judged the latter from your longer- term trial-run submissions. But half of you are projecting that inflation in 2011 will be below your own individual assessments of the mandate-consistent inflation rate by about ¼ to ½ percentage point, and in one case, by more than 1 percentage point, mainly reflecting the lagged effects of weak economic activity and the relatively sluggish pace of recovery.
In your forecast submissions, several of you indicated that the appropriate path of monetary policy would involve less near-term easing than assumed in the Greenbook, and more than half of you expressed the view that policy tightening would need to occur several quarters earlier and at a substantially more rapid pace than in the Greenbook.
Exhibit 3 presents your views on the risks and uncertainties in the outlook. As shown in the top left-hand panel, all of you now see uncertainty about growth as elevated relative to historical norms. As shown to the right, most of you continue to perceive the risks to growth as weighted to the downside even with the downward revision in your modal projections. Several of you pointed to the possibility that financial market turmoil might not subside as quickly as anticipated and to significant risks of an increasingly negative feedback loop between credit markets and economic activity. As shown in the bottom left-hand panel, most of you also continue to see an elevated degree of uncertainty about inflation. In June, most of you judged the risks to the inflation outlook as skewed to the upside, but as shown to the right, nearly all of you now see the risks to the inflation outlook as either balanced or tilted to the downside.
Exhibit 4 summarizes the results of the trial run on longer-term projections. These projections were intended to represent values to which variables would converge over time, say five to six years ahead, under the assumption of appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of any further shocks. For real GDP growth, your longer-term projections have a central tendency of 2½ to 2¾ percent and a range of about 2 to 3 percent. For the unemployment rate, your longer-run projections have a central tendency of 4¾ to 5 percent and a range of about 4½ to 5¾ percent. For both variables, the central tendencies are very similar to those of the projections for 2010 that you made in October 2007, shown in the bottom panel, a point at which many of you viewed the modal outlook for 2010 as being fairly close to the balanced growth path of the economy. For PCE inflation, your longer-run projections have a central tendency of about 1¾ percent and a range of 1½ to 2 percent. The range of these projections is identical to the range of two-year-ahead inflation projections that you made last October; the minutes from that meeting indicated that those projections were influenced importantly by your judgments about the measured rates of inflation consistent with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of promoting price stability and maximum employment.
The request for the trial-run projections suggested that convergence might typically occur over a period of five to six years. One of you noted that the convergence process this time will likely occur over an even longer period because of the severity of the economic crisis. However, apparently most of you thought that convergence would occur sooner than that, suggesting that the configuration of this trial run produces a good representation of FOMC participants’ views of the steady state values of GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation.
As usual, the staff will be preparing a summary of economic projections (SEP) and will be circulating drafts to you over the next few weeks along with drafts of the minutes. The published SEP, and hence the drafts, will not incorporate the longer- term projections from the trial run. The staff will provide to you separately a version of the SEP that has been modified to incorporate the longer-term projections generated by the trial run. The subcommittee will consult with the Chairman about next steps. One possibility would be for the Committee to discuss experience with the trial run at its December meeting and make a provisional decision at that time as to whether to proceed in January with regular longer-term projections; a final decision could be made in January. Thank you. That concludes our presentation.