Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. You should have gotten memos from the Subcommittee on Communications having to do with the longer-term projections. In considering the trial run and also the current situation, in which the ’09, ’10, and ’11 projections really weren’t settling down and didn’t look as though they would soon settle down into what would be consistent with where we would want things to be in the long term. In these circumstances, the subcommittee thought it would be a good idea to go ahead with a quarterly extension of the projections to give the public a better idea of where we thought output, growth, employment, and inflation were expected to be over the longer run.

We made four recommendations within that overall recommendation. We recommended that we do it quarterly, not just once a year, and that the discussion be integrated with the rest of the quarterly projection process in the Summary of Economic Projections. We also recommended that we continue to do this for total PCE inflation but, as we did in the trial run, not do it for core PCE to emphasize to the public that it was the total we were looking at over the long run and not the core. We thought that the questionnaire should ask each participant to provide “your best assessment of the rate to which each variable would converge over the longer term (say, five to six years from now) in the absence of shocks and assuming appropriate monetary policy.” This would be something that didn’t emphasize the fact that it was five or six years but where things would settle down and it might take five or six years to settle down. So those are our recommendations. Did I missing anything—I’m looking at the subcommittee members?

After today’s and yesterday’s discussions, I think the subcommittee will also take another look at whether the Committee should move further in the direction of an inflation target and get some material to the Committee before the January meeting. I think we are not looking for a vote on this today, but if anybody has any views about whether this is the appropriate direction in which to go, I would like to hear them.

Keyboard shortcuts

j previous speech k next speech