Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Well, as just about everyone has said—and I certainly agree—the near-term outlook is grim. Virtually all the anecdotes of any consequence that I have received recently have been negative. Payroll employment has been, obviously, dropping significantly; and if you look at the trajectory, if that kind of trajectory continues for any length of time beyond the next month or so, it will surpass the declines in employment that we typically have seen, certainly in the last three recessions.

My outlook for the real economy for the next five or six quarters has essentially the same profile as the current Greenbook. I do have a somewhat better recovery starting in the second or third quarter of 2010, but at this point I have to admit that it is more hope than conviction. It is based on a diminution of many of the factors that are currently restraining the economy and producing the significant contraction that is under way.

As far as the inflation outlook is concerned, I don’t have quite as much disinflation as the Greenbook does, but I wouldn’t say that we are all that far apart at this point. One footnote to that: I do get a lot of comments and questions along the lines that President Evans mentioned— “Gee, with that expansion in your balance sheet, with all those reserves, aren’t we going to have a lot of inflation in the future?” Maybe I ought to say “yes” to that question.

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