Transcripts of the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve from 2002–2008.

I would add that I think the ECB in particular has a real aversion to policy activism. In fact, Trichet was on the wires this morning indicating that they are not really comfortable with where they are right now. They may pause in January, and I think it really would take a more severe outcome for activity in the euro area than what we have incorporated in our forecast to get the ECB down to zero. Nevertheless, that is a risk. I would say that there are downside risks here. I would put a higher probability on seeing the Bank of England or the Bank of Canada go to zero. But as Shaghil emphasized, here we are basically just writing down what we think they are going to do, and we generally follow the futures markets fairly closely. But it certainly would be a surprise to me if, over the next six months, we saw other major central banks in the proximity of zero.

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