I would say it hasn’t affected our view in the sense that we haven’t changed the elasticities that we are using on the basis of this one year’s observation, but it points in the right direction. I mean, we are getting a little bit more “umph” from ...

They are a possible source. They were my fourth factor, if I had gone on longer. [Laughter] They were neck and neck with the oil imports in terms of their contribution to the improved outlook for trade.

No, that is just goods.

Aircraft are an important factor in this. In the fourth quarter of last year, Boeing was essentially exporting all the aircraft it could produce; so coming into the first quarter, we didn’t get much more because there weren’t any more to sell. But that issue has been important ...

As you know from the Greenbook, recent news on foreign economic activity has been generally upbeat, supporting our view that growth abroad will continue at a solid pace. The top panel of exhibit 10 shows our weighted average of total foreign GDP growth and our outlook. If our forecast is ...

Well, we’ve certainly been hearing a lot about so-called speculative players in the market. With respect to oil markets, inventories actually have been trending up a bit even as prices are going up. So, there’s some kind of speculative activity going on currently, it would appear. But as ...

I think forecasting asset prices has a high standard error around it; it’s not a very precise art.

Well, our forecast, obviously, is for import prices to decelerate. That’s based on forecasts that the dollar will flatten out, roughly, or decline only moderately going forward, and that commodity prices will also be relatively flat. So, to the extent you put a lot of confidence into those forecasts ...

Is the question about the import prices or about going from import prices to the inflation measure?

These forecasts are based on the futures quotes. There may be some differences in view between our forecast for China compared with what the futures markets are thinking. They might be a bit more upbeat about the outlook for China. But we do have a little downward tilt here, and ...

In part it is the supply response in some of the metals and presumably in food and other—

I’m not sure.

I think we’re seeing attempts now in some parts of the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, to try to expand capacity for oil. As for these alternative sources, I don’t know if we’ve reached the trigger points yet where expanding their production has become profitable.

It depends on how far into the future you want to go. It’s an unsustainable path.

The dollar?

The top left panel of exhibit 11 presents our outlook for foreign real GDP growth. We forecast total foreign growth to move back up this quarter from a soft first-quarter pace and to rise a bit further going forward. The pickup is modest and reflects our assessment of the balance ...