Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation of 25 basis points. I rather like moving the operative forward-looking language to “may” as opposed to “may well” because I think it frees the markets to look much more at the data, as they would do naturally anyway. I do think ...

Do you want to go around first?

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Greenbook baseline presents a relatively positive scenario. But as the 90 percent confidence interval given in the Greenbook clearly indicates, there is considerable uncertainty around this baseline. In a theoretical world of certainty equivalence, that range of uncertainty would not matter. But as you’ve ...

So moved.

I’ll move that nomination.

Any discussion? Any objection? So, again, those are elected unanimously. Congratulations.

A second?

SEVERAL. Second.

Thank you. I need someone to move those names for election.

PARTICIPANT. So moved.

Well, I’m actually not in full swing, because I don’t have the documents in front of me. [Laughter]

Thank you very much. Any objection? Any discussion? None. So we will plan to do as Governor Kohn has suggested and hold a notation vote when a new Chairman is sworn in for the Board of Governors. Mr. Chairman, I now turn the floor back to you.

Thank you. Is there a second? I do need a second on that.

PARTICIPANT. I second.

Fine. Is there any discussion? Is there any objection? Hearing none, it is unanimous. Congratulations. [Laughter] Before democracy moves too quickly, [laughter] we also have to move to plan for the election of a new Chairman. So let me, again, turn to Governor Kohn.

Thank you very much. Is there a second?

PARTICIPANT. Second.

Now, you’ll see what happens. [Laughter] Don’t presume anything. Governor Kohn.

Thank you very much. I will do what is right. [Laughter] Let me open the floor now for nominations for a Chairman and a Vice Chairman of this Committee.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First, I accept your recommendation for a 25 basis point move. On your analysis of asset prices, I think it is notable that over the last ten years—or more than ten years—we’ve had a great moderation in both GDP and also inflation, but ...

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The concept of the known unknown came to the national consciousness about a year or two ago, and I sense that it’s very much in this room today. The baseline forecast calls for a very nice, soft landing to potential growth with contained inflation if ...

Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation of 25 basis points. I support the language in alternative B. On the issue of what we should say about the minutes, I would caution all of us to be very careful because the real answer is we don’t know. To say much ...

They will be an arithmetic subtraction from measured GDP in the U.S. economy. I think all of the conditions that have driven that in the past, including foreign exchange rates, relative interest rates, and most importantly the productivity story and an absence of domestic absorption overseas, are likely to ...

He famously said, “The fox knows many little things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” The reason that’s important here is that while the various readings we’ve had on the incoming data are extremely important, in some ways they are in the category of “many little things ...

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Like others, I am somewhat, though not fully, reassured by the incoming data. The economy clearly appears to be on an expansionary track, not having been seriously damaged by the seriously damaging hurricanes. Additionally, readings of core inflation have been surprisingly benign, given everything we know ...

Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. I agree with you on the indeterminacy of the supply and demand considerations. And I think your analysis of the ’70s and our understanding or lack of understanding of productivity growth at the time is important.

I’ll close with one other thing, the ...

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Beyond the tragic and sobering consequences of Katrina that we saw, the effect of Katrina with respect to monetary policy I think has been to create greater uncertainty, not just about the near term but also the intermediate term. Katrina clearly has become more policy-relevant than ...

Great. Thank you.

Two points—a comment and a question. I’m actually somewhat surprised at the answers you got on your last question, Mr. Chairman, because staff members from both R&S [Research and Statistics] and Monetary Affairs did a series of memos for me on just this question, and I talked about ...

Yes, leaving it at the end. That is the policy-significant story here, and I think that picks up the general tone around the room. So I’m weighing in fairly strongly on not making this change. I understand the grammatical point that President Poole made. But in terms of the ...

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation. With respect to the language, I think the most important set of changes here is not in paragraph 3 but in paragraph 4. And I actually think having the language read the way it is written now in alternative B, as opposed ...

That’s for a slow reversion, right? The other one that you have here involves a very rapid reversion.

Okay. So in some sense, the Greenbook scenario covers the current situation, and then a very, very gradual movement up in the term premium.

Just one. Brian, you had on exhibit 4 an interesting simulation in the scenario with a higher term premium. But an alternative you didn’t simulate is what happens if the relatively low term premia that we are observing now stay in place for some time. There are a number ...

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The incoming data show broad-based support for growth, with inflation—at least in the most recent readings—relatively well contained. Final demand seems to be robust, with consumers, housing, and to some degree business investment spending, all making contributions. No doubt some of these data have ...

I support both parts of your recommendation.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The issues before us at this meeting are two. The first is: Are we going to be dissuaded from the announced strategy of another modest tightening in monetary policy? And second: Is there palpable need to adjust market expectations of policy going forward?

We might be ...

I think that’s a fair point.

You’ve told me in the past that the supply response in copper tends to take a year or two. The price has not been high enough necessarily, but one would have thought we’d start to see some supply response, getting these prices to come down even more quickly.

I’ll continue to plow that ground just for one minute. I’m struck a bit by the fact that the stories on the run-up in commodity prices and oil prices are all about China and India. You have a forecast here where China’s growth falls off fairly dramatically ...

The answer is obviously “yes.” [Laughter]

But have the results, generally speaking, been positive or neutral? I know this policy is in its early days, but is there any judgment one could make even at this early stage on whether or not more jawboning—or, in the case of Australia, actually moving rates—has been helpful?

I guess my question is addressed to Glenn and John. Obviously, the United States is unique, but we’re not the only country where a central bank has been trying to deal with this issue. We’ve seen recently that monetary authorities in the United Kingdom, Australia, and perhaps the ...

I’ll move that nomination.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I’ve already said I support 25 basis points. I also support your broader perspective that we should try to keep the language pretty much unchanged. Given what has already been said, let me just make three or four comments.

First, on the word “measured.” I ...

Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Like everyone else, I’ve noted with some concern both the incoming evidence of a soft patch with respect to growth and a rough patch with respect to inflation. However, I also believe that the Greenbook has taken these incoming data on board with ...

All requests for changes of 25 basis points.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation of 25 basis points and I support alternative B. On the broad issues, I think we have to continue to attempt to have in our statement some forward-looking language, as painful as it may be. I did not support the move toward ...

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. At the last meeting, I described the economy as being in what I called a mid-cycle sweet spot, so the obvious question is: What has happened since then? I would say that, in general, my headline is bifurcated. One is, “so far so good;” and two ...

Well, consistent with the odds and tradition, I will nominate the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

And we have a turnout of 100 percent!

Any other nominations? Any objections? Any comments? Well, we’re not in an era of great democracy. [Laughter] Let the record show a unanimous vote for Messrs. Greenspan and Geithner to be Chairman and Vice Chairman of the FOMC until its first regularly scheduled meeting of 2006. Congratulations.

Is there a second to those nominations?

SEVERAL. Second.

And do you have a nomination for Vice Chairman?