Shaghil Ahmed.

In the near term, yes, through the first half of next year.

I think the latest official numbers don’t incorporate the November data, which just came out—actually, they came out yesterday—and some trade data since the Greenbook.

Yes. These numbers are less.

It is informed by surveys, yes.

No. This is our projection.

Looking at the policy that is going forward, first of all, we are forecasting here what we think they will do, not necessarily what we think they should do. Given their past behavior, we think that they will be ratcheting up the rates the first chance they get. The timing ...

I think the deficit goes down to about 3 percent.

I will be referring to the exhibits that follow the blue International Outlook cover page. Financial markets in foreign economies remain stressed but have not suffered further pronounced deterioration since the October FOMC meeting. As shown at the top of your first exhibit, government bond yields in major industrial economies ...